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Argentina under Milei: what investors should know in 2026

Three years into the Milei government, Argentina has a fiscal surplus, lower inflation and a reopened currency market. It also has a slowing economy, a strong peso and an election in 2027. Here is the balance sheet.

Updated 9 min readSourced from official announcements

Key facts

  • Inflation was 1.7% in August 2026 (33.5% year on year), down from 117.8% for 2024.
  • Argentina posted a primary fiscal surplus of 1.8% of GDP in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025.
  • The economy grew 4.4% in 2025 but shrank 0.6% quarter on quarter in Q2 2026.
  • The IMF's US$20 billion programme has disbursed about US$15.8 billion; the third review was in progress in late September 2026.
  • Country risk was about 650 basis points on 2 October 2026.

Argentina has changed more since December 2023 than in the previous two decades. The government of Javier Milei cut public spending sharply, removed most currency controls and opened the economy. Investors who wrote the country off in 2023 now look at it again.

The picture is not simple, though. The adjustment worked on the fiscal side and on inflation, but growth slowed in 2026 and the currency is strong. This briefing gives the latest official data as of 2 October 2026, with sources. It is general information, not investment advice. Speak to a qualified adviser before you commit capital.

Inflation: down sharply, but stuck around 2% a month

Consumer prices rose 117.8% in 2024 and 31.5% in 2025, according to INDEC, the national statistics office. In 2026 the monthly figure fell from 2.9% in January to 1.7% in August, the lowest in 14 months.

Month (2026) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
CPI, % month on month 2.9 2.9 3.4 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.7

Two points matter for investors. First, twelve-month inflation was 33.5% in August, slightly above the 2025 figure, because early 2026 was harder than expected. Second, forecasts for full-year 2026 cluster around 29–31% (BBVA 29%, OECD 30.8%, IMF 30.5%), far above the 10% the government assumed in its 2026 budget.

The fiscal anchor

The fiscal surplus is the centre of the programme. According to the Ministry of Economy, Argentina had a primary surplus of 1.8% of GDP and a financial surplus (after interest) of 0.3% in 2024, the first since 2010. In 2025 the figures were 1.4% and 0.2%.

In 2026 the margin is thinner. The primary surplus to June was about 0.6% of GDP, just short of the IMF’s first-half target, and a waiver is expected. The official target for the year is a primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP. The government has also cut taxes by about 3 percentage points of GDP so far, by its own count, which limits room for error.

Growth: a strong 2025, a weak 2026

GDP grew 4.4% in 2025 after a recession in 2024. In 2026 the recovery lost speed:

  • GDP fell 0.6% quarter on quarter in Q2 2026, the first contraction since 2024.
  • The monthly activity index (EMAE) fell 2.9% in July, the largest monthly drop since the pandemic.
  • Unemployment reached 7.9% in Q2, the highest since 2021.

Forecasts for 2026 have come down. The IMF cut its forecast from 4.0% in January to 3.5% in April. The OECD now expects 2.6%. The central bank’s survey of economists (REM) showed a median of 2.2% in early September.

Energy, mining and agriculture are the strong sectors. Retail, manufacturing and construction are weaker. Poverty fell from 52.9% in the first half of 2024 to 28.2% in the second half of 2025, but rose again to 32.3% in the first half of 2026.

The peso and the end of the cepo

In April 2025 the central bank (BCRA) ended most of the cepo, the currency controls on individuals, and let the peso float within a band. Since January 2026 the band widens each month in line with inflation, rather than at a fixed 1%. The BCRA also buys dollars in the market to build reserves.

The results in 2026:

  • The wholesale rate was about ARS 1,520 per US dollar on 2 October 2026, well below the band ceiling of about ARS 1,919.
  • The BCRA bought about US$14.6 billion from January to September, above its US$10 billion target. Purchases slowed in August and September.
  • Gross reserves were about US$48 billion in early October.

The peso is strong in real terms. It weakened only 3.7% in the first eight months of 2026, while prices rose 21.3%. That helps inflation but hurts exporters and tourism, and many economists see it as a brake on growth. For practical banking questions, see our guide to banking in Argentina for foreigners.

The IMF and US support

In April 2025 the IMF approved a 48-month Extended Fund Facility of US$20 billion. By May 2026, after the second review, about US$15.8 billion had been disbursed. The IMF granted a waiver for missed reserve targets and later lowered the target. An IMF mission visited Buenos Aires from 21 to 29 September 2026 for the third review; there was no staff-level agreement as of 2 October.

The repayment schedule is heavy. Argentina owes the IMF about US$57 billion. Principal repayments began in September 2026, and payments in 2027 will be more than double those of late 2026.

In October 2025 the US Treasury agreed a US$20 billion swap line. Argentina drew US$2.5 billion and repaid it in full by January 2026.

Politics: the 2025 midterms and the reform agenda

The midterm elections of 26 October 2025 were a turning point. Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza, won about 40.7% of the vote, against 33.7% for the Peronist Fuerza Patria. On the next trading day the Merval stock index rose more than 20% and the peso gained 9.5%.

With a stronger Congress, the government passed:

  • The 2026 budget, approved by the Senate in December 2025.
  • A labour reform (Law 27.802), approved in February 2026. A labour judge suspended about 80 articles in March 2026 after a challenge by the CGT union federation.
  • A reform of the central bank charter, approved by the Senate in September 2026.

Not every reform passed. In August 2026 the government withdrew a section on foreign land ownership from a property bill for lack of support. On 29 September 2026 the Supreme Court rejected a challenge to the decree that repealed the old limits on foreign purchases of rural land, on standing grounds. See buying property in Argentina as a foreigner.

RIGI: the large-investment regime

The RIGI (Régimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones) was created by the Ley Bases, Ley 27.742, in 2024. For projects of at least US$200 million it offers:

  • A 25% corporate income tax rate.
  • Gradual freedom to keep export earnings abroad, reaching 100% from the third year.
  • 30 years of tax, customs and currency stability.

In June 2026, 16 projects worth about US$30 billion had been approved, with 25 more (about US$111 billion) under review. On 2 October 2026 Minister Luis Caputo said approvals exceeded US$56 billion. Recent approvals include Glencore’s US$4 billion Agua Rica copper project. A “Super RIGI” for projects over US$1 billion passed the lower house in June 2026 and awaits the Senate. The application window runs to July 2027.

Markets and ratings

  • Country risk (JP Morgan EMBI spread) was about 650 basis points on 2 October 2026, up from about 450 earlier in the year, according to Minister Caputo.
  • S&P and Fitch both upgraded Argentina to B- in mid-2026.
  • Argentina has not yet issued a new international bond. It has used local-law dollar bonds and bank repos instead.
  • The Merval was down about 9% in dollar terms in 2026 to late September.

The balance of risks

What has gone right: a fiscal surplus for two years, monthly inflation below 2%, a functioning currency market, reserve accumulation and a stronger position in Congress.

What could go wrong:

  1. The 2027 election. The presidential vote is in October 2027. Polls in 2026 show a divided electorate, and a change of direction would affect contracts, taxes and the currency.
  2. Debt in 2027. About US$25 billion of foreign-currency debt falls due, plus higher IMF payments.
  3. The strong peso. If the real exchange rate stays strong, growth and reserve purchases may suffer.
  4. Legal challenges. Several reforms rest on decrees. Courts have suspended parts of some, such as the labour reform.

This matters for families too. The Argentina citizenship by investment programme announced on 2 October 2026 depends on a decree, DNU 366/2025, which the Cámara Nacional Electoral ruled against in June 2026; the government has appealed to the Supreme Court. Read our legal status update and our guide to programme costs. For a confidential discussion, request a private briefing.

Sources

Frequently asked questions

What is Argentina's inflation rate in 2026?

INDEC measured 1.7% for August 2026, the lowest monthly figure in 14 months, and 33.5% over twelve months. Forecasters such as BBVA and the OECD expect about 29–31% for calendar 2026.

Does Argentina still have currency controls?

Most controls on individuals ended in April 2025, when the central bank moved to a floating band. Since January 2026 the band widens in line with monthly inflation. Some rules for companies and cross-market operations remain, so check with your bank.

What is the RIGI?

The Régimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones, created by Ley 27.742 in 2024, gives projects of at least US$200 million a 25% corporate tax rate, gradual freedom to keep export dollars abroad and 30 years of tax and regulatory stability. The application window runs to July 2027.

What are the main risks for investors in Argentina?

The main risks are the October 2027 presidential election, about US$25 billion of foreign-currency debt due in 2027 plus rising IMF repayments, a strong real exchange rate that weighs on growth, and court challenges to reforms made by decree.

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